Recent data releases are throwing cold water on hopes for a rapid series of Fed rate cuts. The U.S. flash manufacturing PMI surged to 53.3, its highest in three years, suggesting an industrial rebound reuters.com. At the same time, three Fed officials said they are not ready to ease policy, sending bets on a September cut down to around 25 % reuters.com. Strong factory data, combined with hawkish comments, have traders re‑examining whether the economy needs more stimulus reuters.com.
Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grows louder. The U.S. and European Union sealed a framework deal that includes a 15 % tariff on most EU imports reuters.com. Washington is also pressuring India to reduce Russian oil purchases reuters.com. The combination of resilient manufacturing activity and tariff risk has left markets in limbo: investors are no longer certain that September will bring the first of several rate cuts, and volatility is spiking as a result.
